NottinghamshireversusSurrey

15 Jul 2026 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 7 runs

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs163/6 Surrey20.0 overs156/7 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 49%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Surrey is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 4% to 94% during the match (Surrey: 6% to 96%).

Biggest swings

0.4: RJW Topley to JM Clarke, JM Clarke out. Surrey up from 53% to 67%.
2nd inns 18.5: B Fernando to TK Curran, TK Curran out. Nottinghamshire up from 19% to 39%.
2nd inns 19.2: OP Stone to CJ Jordan, CJ Jordan out. Nottinghamshire up from 55% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire163/6 Surrey156/7

Innings 1