Kolkata Knight RidersversusRoyal Challengers Bengaluru

21 Apr 2024 · T20

Eden Gardens, Kolkata · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kolkata Knight Riders won by 1 runs

Kolkata Knight Riders20.0 overs222/6 Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs221/10 Eden Gardens, Kolkata ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kolkata Knight Riders started on 58%; Kolkata Knight Riders batted first.

Kolkata Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · Royal Challengers Bengaluru is the rest

Kolkata Knight Riders's chances ranged from 35% to 98% during the match (Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 2% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.4: MA Starc to KV Sharma, six by KV Sharma. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 16% to 65%.
2nd inns 19.5: MA Starc to KV Sharma, KV Sharma out. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 35% to 59%.
2nd inns 19.6: MA Starc to LH Ferguson, LH Ferguson out. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 59% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kolkata Knight Riders222/6 Royal Challengers Bengaluru221/10

Innings 1