Birmingham BearsversusDerbyshire

18 Jul 2025 · T20

The County Ground, Derby · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 127 runs

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs233/5 Derbyshire15.1 overs106/10 The County Ground, Derby ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 56%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Derbyshire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Derbyshire: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

2.2: AT Thomson to TWM Latham, six by TWM Latham. Birmingham Bears up from 53% to 59%.
2nd inns 1.3: RJ Gleeson to AHT Donald, AHT Donald out. Birmingham Bears up from 86% to 91%.
2nd inns 1.6: RJ Gleeson to CP Jewell, CP Jewell out. Birmingham Bears up from 90% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears233/5 Derbyshire106/10

Innings 1