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Photo: Mnnngchris at English Wikipedia
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Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
18 Jul 2025 · T20
The County Ground, Derby · Venue photographRecorded result
Birmingham Bears started on 56%; Birmingham Bears batted first.
Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Derbyshire: 0% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aneurin Donaldcaught · Tom Latham · Richard Gleeson1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Richard Gleeson | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 171.43 |
| Caleb Jewellcaught · Alex Davies · Richard Gleeson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Davies · b Richard Gleeson | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
 Harry Camelbw · Danny Briggs1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Danny Briggs | 19 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 86.36 |
 Wayne Madsencaught · Jacob Bethell · George Garton2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b George Garton |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 160.00 |
 Samit Patelcaught · George Garton1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · b George Garton | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
 Ross Whiteleybowled · Jacob Lintott1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jacob Lintott | 10 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 90.91 |
|---|
 Zak Chappellcaught · Ed Barnard · Hasan Ali1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ed Barnard · b Hasan Ali | 23 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 164.29 |
|---|
 Alex Thomsonstumped · Alex Davies · Jacob Lintott1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alex Davies · b Jacob Lintott | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 128.57 |
|---|
| Allah Mohammad Ghazanfarcaught and bowled · Danny Briggs 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Danny Briggs | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Ben Aitchisonstumped · Alex Davies · Jacob Lintott0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alex Davies · b Jacob Lintott | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Patrick Brownnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Garton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 7.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Richard Gleeson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Hasan Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Lintott0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Danny Briggs0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 4.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Aneurin Donald, 1.3) · 2-18 (Caleb Jewell, 2.0) · 3-28 (Wayne Madsen, 3.0) · 4-39 (Samit Patel, 5.1) · 5-62 (Ross Whiteley, 9.0) · 6-80 (Harry Came, 11.3) · 7-97 (Zak Chappell, 13.2) · 8-103 (Alex Thomson, 14.1) · 9-106 (Ben Aitchison, 15.0) · 10-106 (Allah Mohammad Ghazanfar, 15.1)
Recorded target: 234 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 18/2 |
| 3 | 10 | 28/3 |
| 4 | 2 | 30/3 |
| 5 | 9 | 39/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 41/4 |
| 7 | 9 | 50/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 53/4 |
| 9 | 9 | 62/5 |
| 10 | 2 | 64/5 |
| 11 | 14 | 78/5 |
| 12 | 8 | 86/6 |
| 13 | 10 | 96/6 |
| 14 | 7 | 103/7 |
| 15 | 3 | 106/9 |
| 16 | 0 | 106/10 |
Ross Whiteley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Aneurin Donald: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Aitchison: Dave Morton · Public domain
Richard Gleeson: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasan Ali: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Harry Came: Dave Morton · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Samit Patel: Oliver Brown · CC BY-SA 3.0
Alex Thomson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wayne Madsen: Parklands cobbler · CC BY 3.0
Zak Chappell: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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