**Kingsmead, Durban**
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SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Joburg Super KingsversusDurban's Super Giants

14 Jan 2025 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Joburg Super Kings won by 28 runs

Joburg Super Kings20.0 overs169/7 Durban's Super Giants18.0 overs141/10 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Joburg Super Kings started on 44%; Joburg Super Kings batted first.

Joburg Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Durban's Super Giants is the rest

Joburg Super Kings's chances ranged from 29% to 99% during the match (Durban's Super Giants: 1% to 71%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.6: M Pathirana to H Klaasen, H Klaasen out. Joburg Super Kings up from 45% to 67%.
2nd inns 14.4: T Shamsi to CR Woakes, CR Woakes out. Joburg Super Kings up from 44% to 70%.
2nd inns 14.6: T Shamsi to KA Maharaj, KA Maharaj out. Joburg Super Kings up from 72% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Joburg Super Kings169/7 Durban's Super Giants141/10

Innings 1