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Brazil tour of Argentina · 2025/26 · Men
28 Nov 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Argentina more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Brazil started on 19%; Brazil batted first.
Brazil's chances ranged from 0% to 30% during the match (Argentina: 70% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LH Rodriguesnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 51* | 55 | 2 | 1 | 92.73 |
| Rejaul Karimbowled · Lucas Rossi 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lucas Rossi | 17 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
| LF Mullerbowled · A Kirschbaum 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Kirschbaum | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 87.50 |
| MFI Assuncaocaught · R Escobar · Lucas Rossi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Escobar · b Lucas Rossi | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Yasar Haroonbowled · Lucas Rossi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lucas Rossi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| CC Machadocaught · R Escobar · AAP Rivero0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · R Escobar · b AAP Rivero |
| 9 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| L Maximobowled · A Husain 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Husain | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| LG Morasbowled · AAP Rivero 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b AAP Rivero | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| FC Munizrun out · R Escobar, AAP Rivero · AAP Rivero 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · R Escobar, AAP Rivero | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hernán Fennell0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 1 |
| A Husain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Lucas Rossi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| A Kirschbaum0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 2 | 0 |
| AAP Rivero0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 5 | 0 |
1-30 (Rejaul Karim, 5.4) · 2-51 (LF Muller, 9.0) · 3-62 (MFI Assuncao, 11.3) · 4-62 (Yasar Haroon, 11.5) · 5-83 (CC Machado, 15.2) · 6-90 (L Maximo, 16.5) · 7-104 (LG Moras, 19.3) · 8-109 (FC Muniz, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 51/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 55/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 62/2 |
| 12 | 0 | 62/4 |
| 13 | 4 | 66/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 71/4 |
| 15 | 12 | 83/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 85/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 90/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 97/6 |
| 19 | 6 | 103/6 |
| 20 | 6 | 109/8 |
Hernán Fennell: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alejandro Ferguson: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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