South AfricaversusZimbabwe

South Africa more likely to win

Why

• In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 9 and Zimbabwe won 0
• On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,641 vs 1,535 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 78%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 21%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 1.5: P Subrayen to BJ Curran, BJ Curran out. South Africa up from 80% to 86%.
2. 2nd inns 3.1: BC Fortuin to BJ Bennett, BJ Bennett out. South Africa up from 82% to 90%.
3. 2nd inns 3.3: BC Fortuin to W Madhevere, W Madhevere out. South Africa up from 90% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.