GloucestershireversusNorthamptonshire

29 May 2026 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 7 wickets

Gloucestershire20.0 overs164/9 Northamptonshire16.2 overs166/3 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 45%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Northamptonshire is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Northamptonshire: 41% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: JJG Sales to Miles Hammond, Miles Hammond out. Northamptonshire up from 43% to 55%.
5.5: JJG Sales to DJM Short, DJM Short out. Northamptonshire up from 56% to 66%.
11.3: JJG Sales to JMR Taylor, JMR Taylor out. Northamptonshire up from 59% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire164/9 Northamptonshire166/3

Innings 1