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Photo: Krish Dulal
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
15 Feb 2024 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 60%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Namibia: 41% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · JJ Smit · Ruben Trumpelmann0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · JJ Smit · Jack Brassell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b Jack Brassell | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 36.36 |
| Anil Sahlbw · Ruben Trumpelmann 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Rohit Kumarbowled · Jack Brassell0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jack Brassell | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 7.69 |
| B Sharkilbw · Gerhard Erasmus2 fours · 1 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Gerhard Erasmus |
| 44 |
| 86 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 51.16 |
 Kushal Mallacaught · Tangeni Lungameni · Gerhard Erasmus1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tangeni Lungameni · b Gerhard Erasmus | 15 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 68.18 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamicaught · Jan Frylinck · Gerhard Erasmus0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Frylinck · b Gerhard Erasmus | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhabowled · Gerhard Erasmus3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gerhard Erasmus | 21 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 67.74 |
|---|
| Pawan Sarrafcaught · Gerhard Erasmus · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 12 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 54.55 |
|---|
 Karan KClbw · Gerhard Erasmus3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gerhard Erasmus | 16 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 42.11 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 2.20 | 1 | 0 |
| Tangeni Lungameni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Jan Frylinck0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.1 | 0 | 28 | 5 | 3.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Kushal Bhurtel, 0.1) · 2-12 (Anil Sah, 2.1) · 3-13 (Aasif Sheikh, 3.5) · 4-21 (Rohit Kumar, 9.3) · 5-67 (Kushal Malla, 19.5) · 6-73 (Sompal Kami, 21.4) · 7-94 (B Sharki, 27.4) · 8-106 (Gulsan Jha, 31.1) · 9-121 (Pawan Sarraf, 35.3) · 10-132 (Karan KC, 41.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 13/2 |
| 4 | 0 | 13/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 15/3 |
| 6 | 1 | 16/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 17/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 18/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 20/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 25/4 |
| 11 | 3 | 28/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 31/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 34/4 |
| 14 | 1 | 35/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 38/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 43/4 |
| 17 | 9 | 52/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 57/4 |
| 19 | 9 | 66/4 |
| 20 | 1 | 67/5 |
| 21 | 1 | 68/5 |
| 22 | 5 | 73/6 |
| 23 | 5 | 78/6 |
| 24 | 5 | 83/6 |
| 25 | 0 | 83/6 |
| 26 | 2 | 85/6 |
| 27 | 4 | 89/6 |
| 28 | 5 | 94/7 |
| 29 | 4 | 98/7 |
| 30 | 6 | 104/7 |
| 31 | 2 | 106/7 |
| 32 | 1 | 107/8 |
| 33 | 2 | 109/8 |
| 34 | 7 | 116/8 |
| 35 | 5 | 121/8 |
| 36 | 0 | 121/9 |
| 37 | 5 | 126/9 |
| 38 | 5 | 131/9 |
| 39 | 1 | 132/9 |
| 40 | 0 | 132/9 |
| 41 | 0 | 132/9 |
| 42 | 0 | 132/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
