San Francisco UnicornsversusTexas Super Kings

26 Jul 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

San Francisco Unicorns won by 10 runs

San Francisco Unicorns20.0 overs200/6 Texas Super Kings20.0 overs190/4 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

San Francisco Unicorns started on 49%; San Francisco Unicorns batted first.

San Francisco Unicorns’s chance of winning (%) · Texas Super Kings is the rest

San Francisco Unicorns's chances ranged from 49% to 97% during the match (Texas Super Kings: 3% to 51%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.2: C le Roux to F du Plessis, F du Plessis out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 59% to 72%.
2nd inns 7.5: J Drysdale to AM Hardie, AM Hardie out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 62% to 72%.
2nd inns 8.4: Hassan Khan to Milind Kumar, Milind Kumar out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 73% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.