CanadaversusPakistan

11 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 7 wickets

Canada20.0 overs106/7 Pakistan17.3 overs107/3 Nassau County International Cricket Stadium, New York ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%Canada50%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Canada (1,480 vs 1,477 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canada started on 47%; Canada batted first.

Canada’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Pakistan: 39% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: Mohammad Amir to NS Dhaliwal, NS Dhaliwal out. Pakistan up from 44% to 53%.
6.6: Haris Rauf to A Johnson, NR Kirton out. Pakistan up from 55% to 63%.
9.5: Haris Rauf to Ravinderpal Singh, Ravinderpal Singh out. Pakistan up from 70% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Canada106/7 Pakistan107/3

Innings 1

Canada

106/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Canada batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aaron Johnsonbowled · Naseem Shah 4 fours · 4 sixes	bowled · b Naseem Shah	52	44	4	4	118.18
Navneet Dhaliwalbowled · Mohammad Amir 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mohammad Amir	4	7	1	0	57.14
Pargat Singhcaught · Fakhar Zaman · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Shaheen Afridi	2	6	0	0	33.33
Nicholas Kirtonrun out · Imad Wasim · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Imad Wasim	1	6	0	0	16.67
Shreyas Movvacaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Haris Rauf	2	9	0	0	22.22

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	1
Naseem Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	1
Mohammad Amir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	2	3.25	0
Haris Rauf0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	7
Imad Wasim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	0	4.75	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	5	16/0
3	4	20/1
4	8	28/1
5	1	29/1
6	1	30/2
7	13	43/3
8	7	50/3
9	2	52/3
10	3	55/5
11	8	63/5
12	3	66/5
13	7	73/5
14	2	75/6
15	2	77/6
16	8	85/6
17	3	88/7
18	3	91/7
19	5	96/7
20	10	106/7

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