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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
11 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 47%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Pakistan: 39% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammad Rizwannot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 53* | 53 | 2 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Saim Ayubcaught · Shreyas Movva · Dillon Heyliger 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Dillon Heyliger | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Shreyas Movva · Dillon Heyliger1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Dillon Heyliger | 33 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
 Fakhar Zamancaught · DS Bajwa · Jeremy Gordon0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · DS Bajwa · b Jeremy Gordon | 4 | 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
 Usman Khannot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Gordon0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.86 | 1 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Junaid Siddiqui0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-20 (Saim Ayub, 4.2) · 2-83 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 14.4) · 3-104 (Fakhar Zaman, 17.2)
Recorded target: 107 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 28/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 35/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 41/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 48/1 |
| 10 | 11 | 59/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 64/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 68/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 76/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 81/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 85/2 |
| 16 | 11 | 96/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 103/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 107/3 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Amir: 92 News · CC BY 3.0
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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