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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
1 Nov 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 38%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Saurabh Netravalkar · Harmeet Singh2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Saurabh Netravalkar · b Harmeet Singh | 47 | 65 | 2 | 2 | 72.31 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Nosthush Kenjige 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nosthush Kenjige | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| B Sharkibowled · Harmeet Singh 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harmeet Singh | 43 | 58 | 4 | 0 | 74.14 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Shayan Jahangir · Harmeet Singh2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Harmeet Singh | 36 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 78.26 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 9% to 71% during the match (United States of America: 29% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nosthush Kenjige · b Saurabh Netravalkar |
| 2 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 25.00 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · Nosthush Kenjige2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · b Nosthush Kenjige | 75 | 67 | 2 | 3 | 111.94 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Shubham Ranjane · Jasdeep Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shubham Ranjane · b Jasdeep Singh | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · Jasdeep Singh · Shubham Ranjane2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Jasdeep Singh · b Shubham Ranjane | 49 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 158.06 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavcaught · Nosthush Kenjige · Saurabh Netravalkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nosthush Kenjige · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshirun out · Smit Patel, Jasdeep Singh · Jasdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Smit Patel, Jasdeep Singh | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar1 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 61 | 2 | 6.10 | 1 | 2 |
| Nosthush Kenjige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 64 | 1 | 6.51 | 1 | 0 |
 Shubham Ranjane0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 7.71 | 2 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 33 | 3 | 3.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Sanjay Krishnamurthi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Aasif Sheikh, 1.2) · 2-88 (Kushal Bhurtel, 19.1) · 3-101 (B Sharki, 21.5) · 4-106 (Aarif Sheikh, 24.1) · 5-195 (Rohit Kumar, 37.4) · 6-206 (Gulsan Jha, 41.0) · 7-232 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 45.3) · 8-244 (Nandan Yadav, 47.2) · 9-267 (Karan KC, 49.0) · 10-271 (Lalit Rajbanshi, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 10 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 50/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 57/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 58/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 66/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 69/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 73/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 8 | 82/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 85/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 88/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 90/2 |
| 21 | 8 | 98/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 101/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 104/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 106/3 |
| 25 | 10 | 116/4 |
| 26 | 5 | 121/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 125/4 |
| 28 | 7 | 132/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 138/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 144/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 149/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 153/4 |
| 33 | 10 | 163/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 171/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 176/4 |
| 36 | 11 | 187/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 192/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 195/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 197/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 201/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 206/6 |
| 42 | 4 | 210/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 215/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 220/6 |
| 45 | 11 | 231/6 |
| 46 | 1 | 232/7 |
| 47 | 11 | 243/7 |
| 48 | 12 | 255/8 |
| 49 | 12 | 267/9 |
| 50 | 4 | 271/10 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
