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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
1 Nov 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 38%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patellbw · Gulsan Jha 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Gulsan Jha | 16 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 59.26 |
| Shayan Jahangirbowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 36 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 85.71 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Nandan Yadav 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Nandan Yadav | 21 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallacaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Karan KC 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Karan KC | 75 | 101 | 2 | 1 | 74.26 |
| Milind Kumarcaught · B Sharki · Sandeep Lamichhane 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · B Sharki · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 70 | 66 | 7 | 1 | 106.06 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 9% to 71% during the match (United States of America: 29% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Sanjay Krishnamurthinot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 13 | 0 | 1 | 115.38 |
|---|
 Shubham Ranjanestumped · Aasif Sheikh · Sandeep Lamichhane1 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Aasif Sheikh · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 19 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 158.33 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhnot out 0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 13* | 5 | 0 | 2 | 260.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 3 | 0 |
 Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 5.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 7.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 3 | 5.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-53 (Smit Patel, 10.3) · 2-59 (Shayan Jahangir, 11.5) · 3-95 (Monank Patel, 20.5) · 4-218 (Milind Kumar, 42.5) · 5-234 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 45.2) · 6-256 (Shubham Ranjane, 47.5)
Recorded target: 272 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 43/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 44/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 53/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 58/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 59/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 67/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 70/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 72/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 79/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 86/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 89/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 93/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 95/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 99/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 104/3 |
| 24 | 7 | 111/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 117/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 119/3 |
| 27 | 12 | 131/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 134/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 137/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 139/3 |
| 31 | 8 | 147/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 151/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 154/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 156/3 |
| 35 | 6 | 162/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 165/3 |
| 37 | 7 | 172/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 180/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 186/3 |
| 40 | 14 | 200/3 |
| 41 | 6 | 206/3 |
| 42 | 9 | 215/3 |
| 43 | 3 | 218/4 |
| 44 | 11 | 229/4 |
| 45 | 4 | 233/4 |
| 46 | 4 | 237/5 |
| 47 | 6 | 243/5 |
| 48 | 13 | 256/6 |
| 49 | 17 | 273/6 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
