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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
4 Jun 2024 · T20
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 49%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (Netherlands: 45% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtellbw · Logan van Beek1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Logan van Beek | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Vivian Kingma · Tim Pringle 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vivian Kingma · b Tim Pringle | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Anil Sahcaught · Logan van Beek · Tim Pringle 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Logan van Beek · b Tim Pringle | 11 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 91.67 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Max O'Dowd · Tim Pringle5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Tim Pringle | 35 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 94.59 |
 |
| caught · Max O'Dowd · b Paul van Meekeren |
| 9 |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Logan van Beek · Bas de Leede0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Logan van Beek · b Bas de Leede | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamibowled · Paul van Meekeren0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Paul van Meekeren | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhabowled · Logan van Beek0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Logan van Beek | 14 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 93.33 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · Vivian Kingma · Bas de Leede0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Vivian Kingma · b Bas de Leede | 17 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 141.67 |
|---|
| Sagar Dhakalnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Abinash Boharacaught and bowled · Logan van Beek 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Logan van Beek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 2 | 0 |
 Tim Pringle0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan van Beek0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Bas de Leede1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-10 (Aasif Sheikh, 2.0) · 2-15 (Kushal Bhurtel, 3.1) · 3-40 (Anil Sah, 7.4) · 4-52 (Kushal Malla, 9.4) · 5-53 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 10.4) · 6-66 (Sompal Kami, 13.2) · 7-84 (Rohit Kumar, 16.0) · 8-106 (Karan KC, 18.5) · 9-106 (Gulsan Jha, 19.1) · 10-106 (Abinash Bohara, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 21/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 25/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 29/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 41/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 46/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 53/4 |
| 11 | 0 | 53/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 56/5 |
| 13 | 9 | 65/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 68/6 |
| 15 | 7 | 75/6 |
| 16 | 9 | 84/7 |
| 17 | 7 | 91/7 |
| 18 | 5 | 96/7 |
| 19 | 10 | 106/8 |
| 20 | 0 | 106/10 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Pringle: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
