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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
4 Jun 2024 · T20
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 49%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (Netherlands: 45% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittcaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Sompal Kami | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Max O'Dowdnot out 4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 54* | 48 | 4 | 1 | 112.50 |
| Vikramjit Singhlbw · Dipendra Singh Airee 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 22 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 78.57 |
| Sybrand Engelbrechtrun out · Sompal Kami · Sompal Kami 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sompal Kami | 14 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
| Scott Edwardsbowled · Abinash Bohara 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abinash Bohara | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
| not out |
| 11* |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 110.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 1 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Abinash Bohara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.91 | 0 | 0 |
| Sagar Dhakal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Michael Levitt, 1.2) · 2-43 (Vikramjit Singh, 8.2) · 3-71 (Sybrand Engelbrecht, 13.1) · 4-80 (Scott Edwards, 15.2)
Recorded target: 107 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 36/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 37/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 41/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 46/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 52/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 61/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 69/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 71/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 73/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 79/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 84/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 88/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 94/4 |
| 19 | 15 | 109/4 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Pringle: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
