Papua New GuineaversusVanuatu

Papua New Guinea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Vanuatu (1,528 vs 1,465 on our results rating)
• In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Papua New Guinea won 4 and Vanuatu won 1
• Papua New Guinea are playing at home in Papua New Guinea

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Papua New Guinea started on 71%; Papua New Guinea batted first.

Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Vanuatu: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 7.2: D Lohia to R Andrew, R Andrew out. Papua New Guinea up from 51% to 64%.
2. 2nd inns 10.1: GP Tom to V Mansale, A Chilia out. Papua New Guinea up from 50% to 65%.
3. 2nd inns 10.4: GP Tom to V Mansale, V Mansale out. Papua New Guinea up from 67% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.