**Dubai International Cricket Stadium**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2026 · Women

BangladeshversusSri Lanka

6 Sept 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 4 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs114/8 Sri Lanka19.2 overs115/6 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

26%Bangladesh74%Sri Lanka

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,674 vs 1,598 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 24%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 2% to 80% during the match (Sri Lanka: 20% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.3: Sultana Khatun to WK Dilhari, WK Dilhari out. Bangladesh up from 57% to 80%.
2nd inns 17.3: Ritu Moni to H Madavi, six by H Madavi. Sri Lanka up from 38% to 63%.
2nd inns 18.6: Nahida Akter to H Madavi, six by H Madavi. Sri Lanka up from 71% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh114/8 Sri Lanka115/6

Innings 1

Bangladesh

114/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Chethana Vimukthi · C Praboda 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chethana Vimukthi · b C Praboda	26	26	4	0	100.00
Juairiya Ferdouscaught · Kavisha Dilhari · Sugandika Kumari 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kavisha Dilhari · b Sugandika Kumari	14	10	3	0	140.00
Sobhana Mostarystumped · Kaushini Nuthyangana · C Praboda 4 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b C Praboda	34	41	4	0	82.93
Nigar Sultanalbw · Kavisha Dilhari 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Kavisha Dilhari	4	9	0	0	44.44
Shorna Aktercaught and bowled · C Praboda 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chethana Vimukthi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	21	0	7.00	1
Sugandika Kumari1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	2	5.50	0
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	1	5.00	0
C Praboda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	3	5.25	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	1	4.25	1
Nilakshi de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	6	7/0
3	14	21/0
4	5	26/0
5	5	31/1
6	6	37/1
7	7	44/2
8	3	47/2
9	3	50/2
10	2	52/3
11	6	58/3
12	4	62/3
13	6	68/3
14	8	76/3
15	7	83/3
16	8	91/3
17	4	95/5
18	3	98/5
19	5	103/6
20	11	114/8

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.