OmanversusAustralia

20 Feb 2026 · T20

Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 9 wickets

Oman16.2 overs104/10 Australia9.4 overs108/1 Pallekele International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

26%Oman74%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Oman (1,635 vs 1,497 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 1 and Oman won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Oman started on 24%; Oman batted first.

Oman’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Oman's chances ranged from 0% to 25% during the match (Australia: 75% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: XC Bartlett to Aamir Kaleem, Aamir Kaleem out. Australia up from 75% to 85%.
3.2: NT Ellis to K Sonavale, K Sonavale out. Australia up from 75% to 83%.
4.6: XC Bartlett to Jatinder Singh, Jatinder Singh out. Australia up from 77% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Oman104/10 Australia108/1

Innings 1

Oman

104/1016.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Oman batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aamir Kaleembowled · Xavier Bartlett 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Xavier Bartlett	0	1	0	0	0.00
Jatinder Singhbowled · Xavier Bartlett 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Xavier Bartlett	17	15	3	0	113.33
K Sonavalebowled · Nathan Ellis 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nathan Ellis	12	11	2	0	109.09
Hammad Mirzabowled · Adam Zampa 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Adam Zampa	16	13	1	1	123.08
Wasim Alibowled · Glenn Maxwell 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Glenn Maxwell	32	33	4	0	96.97
Mohammad Nadeemlbw · Adam Zampa0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	1
Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	1	8.00	0
Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	1	7.00	5
Cameron Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	0
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	21	4	6.30	0
Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	2	4.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	9	13/1
3	7	20/1
4	13	33/2
5	6	39/3
6	8	47/3
7	10	57/3
8	2	59/4
9	3	62/4
10	11	73/5
11	2	75/5
12	6	81/5
13	7	88/6
14	1	89/7
15	9	98/7
16	6	104/8
17	0	104/10

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