BangladeshversusThailand

28 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 39 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs165/8 Thailand20.0 overs126/8 Mulpani Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

41%Bangladesh59%Thailand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,695 vs 1,529 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 6 and Thailand won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 39%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

0.1: P Maya to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Thailand up from 61% to 71%.
1.5: T Putthawong to Sharmin Akhter, Sharmin Akhter out. Thailand up from 61% to 69%.
2nd inns 0.1: Marufa Akter to S Khiaoto, S Khiaoto out. Bangladesh up from 76% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh165/8 Thailand126/8

Innings 2

Thailand

126/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Khiaotolbw · Marufa Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Marufa Akter	0	1	0	0	0.00
Natthakan Chantamcaught · Dilara Akter · Fahima Khatun 7 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dilara Akter · b Fahima Khatun	46	41	7	0	112.20
Nannapat Koncharoenkaicaught and bowled · Shorna Akter 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Shorna Akter	29	29	3	0	100.00
Naruemol Chaiwaistumped · Dilara Akter · Shorna Akter 3 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Dilara Akter · b Shorna Akter

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marufa Akter0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	3	6.25	4
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	0	9.00	0
Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	0
Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	0
Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	0
Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	8	15/1
3	3	18/1
4	8	26/1
5	4	30/1
6	7	37/1
7	3	40/1
8	3	43/1
9	7	50/1
10	11	61/1
11	6	67/2
12	6	73/2
13	9	82/2
14	3	85/3
15	6	91/4
16	11	102/4
17	4	106/5
18	3	109/5
19	8	117/7
20	9	126/8

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