**University Oval, Dunedin**
Photo: Benchill
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men

Northern DistrictsversusOtago

16 Jan 2025 · T20

University Oval, Dunedin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 8 runs

Northern Districts20.0 overs212/2 Otago20.0 overs204/8 University Oval, Dunedin ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 43%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Otago: 0% to 59%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.1: N Wagner to DN Phillips, DN Phillips out. Northern Districts up from 74% to 82%.
2nd inns 2.5: MJ Fisher to GD Phillips, GD Phillips out. Northern Districts up from 81% to 89%.
2nd inns 16.2: N Wagner to LJ Carter, LJ Carter out. Northern Districts up from 81% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts212/2 Otago204/8

Innings 1