**St George's Park, Gqeberha**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusDurban's Super Giants

11 Jan 2026 · T20

St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durban's Super Giants won by 2 wickets

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs158/5 Durban's Super Giants19.3 overs162/8 St George's Park, Gqeberha ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 61%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Durban's Super Giants is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 5% to 73% during the match (Durban's Super Giants: 27% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.2: A Nortje to LS Livingstone, LS Livingstone out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 30% to 51%.
2nd inns 17.6: A Nortje to G Coetzee, 1 run to G Coetzee. Durban's Super Giants up from 62% to 79%.
2nd inns 18.4: AF Milne to G Coetzee, six by G Coetzee. Durban's Super Giants up from 63% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.