OmanversusNamibia

2 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Oman won by 6 runs

Oman20.0 overs137/7 Namibia20.0 overs131/9 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%Oman51%Namibia

Why

Oman are playing at home in Oman
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 2 and Oman won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Namibia rate stronger than Oman (1,602 vs 1,587 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Oman started on 47%; Oman batted first.

Oman’s chance of winning (%) · Namibia is the rest

Oman's chances ranged from 32% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 1% to 68%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: Kaleemullah to JP Kotze, JP Kotze out. Oman up from 36% to 49%.
2nd inns 15.4: Mehran Khan to D Wiese, D Wiese out. Oman up from 56% to 72%.
2nd inns 16.4: Mohammad Nadeem to MG Erasmus, MG Erasmus out. Oman up from 65% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Oman137/7 Namibia131/9

Innings 2

Namibia

131/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Jean-Pierre Kotzebowled · Kaleemullah 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kaleemullah	0	2	0	0	0.00
Malan Krugercaught · Ayan Khan · Mehran Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ayan Khan · b Mehran Khan	8	11	1	0	72.73
Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Ayan Khan · Mohammad Nadeem 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ayan Khan · b Mohammad Nadeem	58	56	5	1	103.57
Jan Frylincklbw · Mehran Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Mehran Khan	0	4	0	0	0.00
Zane Greenlbw · Zeeshan Maqsood 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Zeeshan Maqsood	12	13

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Kaleemullah1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	19	1	4.75	0	0
Fiaz Bhutt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	31	2	7.75	1	0
Mehran Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	17	3	4.25	0	1
Aaqib Ilyas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	24	0	8.00	1	0
Rafiullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	0	0
Zeeshan Maqsood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	0	0
Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	13	1	6.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	1	1/1
3	6	7/1
4	7	14/1
5	3	17/1
6	1	18/3
7	6	24/3
8	3	27/3
9	11	38/3
10	8	46/3
11	6	52/4
12	3	55/4
13	6	61/4
14	15	76/4
15	10	86/4
16	9	95/5
17	7	102/6
18	10	112/7
19	6	118/8
20	13	131/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.