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Nigeria tour of Kenya · 2024 · Men
15 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Kenya started on 80%; Kenya batted first.
Kenya's chances ranged from 4% to 93% during the match (Nigeria: 7% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sulaimon Runsewecaught · Sukhdeep Singh · GM Muthui 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sukhdeep Singh · b GM Muthui | 21 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 175.00 |
| Selim Salaulbw · GM Muthui 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b GM Muthui | 19 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 118.75 |
| O Olaleyecaught · Rakep Patel · GM Muthui 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rakep Patel · b GM Muthui | 30 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 81.08 |
| Isaac Danladibowled · Shem Ngoche 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shem Ngoche | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Sylvester Okpecaught · Lucas Oluoch · Vraj Patel 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Lucas Oluoch · b Vraj Patel | 10 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 58.82 |
| not out |
| 41* |
| 18 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 227.78 |
| P Usenicaught · Sachin Bhudia · Francis Mutua 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sachin Bhudia · b Francis Mutua | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Isaac Okperun out · Francis Mutua · Francis Mutua 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Francis Mutua | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mohameed Taiwonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 10.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| GM Muthui0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 3 | 8.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Vraj Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Rakep Patel0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 4 | 0 |
| Francis Mutua0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Selim Salau, 3.1) · 2-46 (Sulaimon Runsewe, 5.3) · 3-53 (Isaac Danladi, 6.5) · 4-75 (Sylvester Okpe, 12.1) · 5-128 (O Olaleye, 16.5) · 6-137 (P Useni, 17.4) · 7-137 (Isaac Okpe, 17.5)
Recorded target: 150 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 23/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 31/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 42/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 51/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 53/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 55/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 57/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 61/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 70/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 75/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/4 |
| 14 | 13 | 90/4 |
| 15 | 21 | 111/4 |
| 16 | 13 | 124/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 132/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 137/7 |
| 19 | 10 | 147/7 |
| 20 | 3 | 150/7 |
Pushkar Sharma: SAKSHI0989 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sukhdeep Singh: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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