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West Indies Women tour of Pakistan · 2024 · Women
23 Apr 2024 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 56%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadaf Shamasbowled · Chinelle Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chinelle Henry | 10 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Sidra Ameenbowled · Shamilia Connell 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shamilia Connell | 9 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Muneeba Alibowled · Hayley Matthews 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hayley Matthews | 38 | 58 | 5 | 0 | 65.52 |
 Bismah Maroofcaught · Hayley Matthews · Karishma Ramharack2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Karishma Ramharack | 19 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 51.35 |
| Nida Darcaught · Aaliyah Alleyne · Hayley Matthews 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaliyah Alleyne · b Hayley Matthews |
West Indies's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 45%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 9 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Aliya Riazstumped · Rashada Williams · Stafanie Taylor 3 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Rashada Williams · b Stafanie Taylor | 36 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 87.80 |
|---|
| Fatima Sanacaught · Chinelle Henry · Stafanie Taylor 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chinelle Henry · b Stafanie Taylor | 23 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 52.27 |
|---|
| Najiha Alvibowled · Zaida James 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zaida James | 9 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Tuba Hassancaught · Shemaine Campbelle · Aaliyah Alleyne 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shemaine Campbelle · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 23 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 95.83 |
|---|
| Umm-e-Hanibowled · Aaliyah Alleyne 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shamilia Connell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Chinelle Henry1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2.57 | 1 | 0 |
 Stafanie Taylor0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 4.83 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 5.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.5 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 5.45 | 2 | 0 |
1-15 (Sadaf Shamas, 5.2) · 2-22 (Sidra Ameen, 6.5) · 3-67 (Bismah Maroof, 18.2) · 4-84 (Nida Dar, 23.3) · 5-95 (Muneeba Ali, 27.2) · 6-136 (Fatima Sana, 37.5) · 7-147 (Najiha Alvi, 40.3) · 8-167 (Aliya Riaz, 43.2) · 9-189 (Tuba Hassan, 47.3) · 10-190 (Umm-e-Hani, 47.5)
Recorded target: 279 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 24/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 24/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 27/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 28/2 |
| 11 | 12 | 40/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 47/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 47/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 48/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 51/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 62/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 65/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 68/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 70/3 |
| 21 | 5 | 75/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 79/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 83/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 84/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 88/4 |
| 26 | 6 | 94/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 95/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 99/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 102/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 105/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 107/5 |
| 32 | 6 | 113/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 116/5 |
| 34 | 7 | 123/5 |
| 35 | 1 | 124/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 128/5 |
| 37 | 5 | 133/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 136/6 |
| 39 | 5 | 141/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 143/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 147/7 |
| 42 | 7 | 154/7 |
| 43 | 9 | 163/7 |
| 44 | 6 | 169/8 |
| 45 | 4 | 173/8 |
| 46 | 4 | 177/8 |
| 47 | 7 | 184/8 |
| 48 | 6 | 190/10 |
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bismah Maroof: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamilia Connell: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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