South AfricaversusSri Lanka

3 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 4 wickets

South Africa20.0 overs155/6 Sri Lanka19.1 overs156/6 Buffalo Park, KuGumpo City ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

56%South Africa44%Sri Lanka

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and Sri Lanka won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than South Africa (1,565 vs 1,519 on our results rating)
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 53%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (Sri Lanka: 24% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.1: N Mlaba to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. South Africa up from 67% to 76%.
2nd inns 9.3: N Mlaba to AC Jayangani, six by AC Jayangani. Sri Lanka up from 51% to 60%.
2nd inns 12.4: M Kapp to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. South Africa up from 17% to 26%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa155/6 Sri Lanka156/6

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

156/619.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Nonkululeko Mlaba 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Nonkululeko Mlaba	1	3	0	0	33.33
Chamari Atapattubowled · Marizanne Kapp 7 fours · 5 sixes	bowled · b Marizanne Kapp	73	46	7	5	158.70
Harshitha Madavinot out 4 fours · 1 sixes	not out	54*	43	4	1	125.58
Kavisha Dilharicaught · Nadine de Klerk · Eliz-Mari Marx 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Eliz-Mari Marx	1

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	1
Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	1	13.00	0
Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	27	0	8.53	0
Eliz-Mari Marx0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	1	9.00	1
Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0
Tumi Sekhukhune0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	1	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	11	16/1
3	11	27/1
4	8	35/1
5	4	39/1
6	9	48/1
7	7	55/1
8	8	63/1
9	4	67/1
10	15	82/1
11	10	92/1
12	8	100/1
13	4	104/2
14	10	114/3
15	7	121/3
16	9	130/3
17	5	135/3
18	9	144/4
19	11	155/6
20	1	156/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.