AustraliaversusBangladesh

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,666 vs 1,518 on our results rating)
• Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Australia started on 69%; Australia batted first.

Australia's chances ranged from 39% to 99% during the match (Bangladesh: 1% to 61%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 12.5: AM Hardie to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Australia up from 40% to 53%.
2. 2nd inns 13.2: JA Davies to Saif Hassan, Saif Hassan out. Australia up from 49% to 63%.
3. 2nd inns 16.3: NT Ellis to Shamim Hossain, Shamim Hossain out. Australia up from 67% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.