AustraliaversusBangladesh

19 Jun 2026 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 7 runs

Australia20.0 overs196/5 Bangladesh20.0 overs189/6 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

69%Australia31%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,666 vs 1,518 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 69%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 39% to 99% during the match (Bangladesh: 1% to 61%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.5: AM Hardie to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Australia up from 40% to 53%.
2nd inns 13.2: JA Davies to Saif Hassan, Saif Hassan out. Australia up from 49% to 63%.
2nd inns 16.3: NT Ellis to Shamim Hossain, Shamim Hossain out. Australia up from 67% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia196/5 Bangladesh189/6

Innings 2

Bangladesh

189/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasancaught and bowled · Matt Renshaw 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b Matt Renshaw	30	15	4	1	200.00
Saif Hassancaught · Mitchell Marsh · Joel Davies 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Joel Davies	42	33	3	2	127.27
Soumya Sarkarcaught · Aaron Hardie · Adam Zampa 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aaron Hardie · b Adam Zampa	15	9	3	0	166.67
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Mitchell Marsh · Aaron Hardie 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Aaron Hardie	36	22	2	3	163.64

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	3
Spencer Johnson0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	39	0	19.50	5
Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0
Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	1	6.50	0
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	0
Joel Davies0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	1	7.00	0
Nikhil Chaudhary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	7	0	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	22	33/0
3	9	42/0
4	6	48/1
5	17	65/1
6	7	72/1
7	5	77/2
8	4	81/2
9	16	97/2
10	6	103/2
11	13	116/2
12	6	122/2
13	10	132/3
14	4	136/4
15	7	143/4
16	10	153/4
17	2	155/5
18	8	163/5
19	11	174/5
20	15	189/6

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