JapanversusMongolia

11 May 2024 · T20

Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Japan won by 158 runs

Japan20.0 overs216/3 Mongolia20.0 overs58/9 Sano International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Japan more likely to win

84%Japan16%Mongolia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Japan rate stronger than Mongolia (1,406 vs 1,236 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Japan won 3 and Mongolia won 0
Japan are playing at home in Japan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Japan started on 84%; Japan batted first.

Japan’s chance of winning (%) · Mongolia is the rest

Japan's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (Mongolia: 0% to 24%).

Biggest swings

0.2: M Vivekanandan to K Kato-Stafford, K Kato-Stafford out. Mongolia up from 16% to 24%.
5.2: L Erdenebulgan to R Sakurano-Thomas, R Sakurano-Thomas out. Mongolia up from 13% to 18%.
6.1: T Tumursukh to S Ravichandran, four by S Ravichandran. Japan up from 82% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Japan216/3 Mongolia58/9

Innings 2

Mongolia

58/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mongolia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Gandemberel Ganboldbowled · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b R Sakurano-Thomas	2	11	0	0	18.18
Namsrai Bat-yalaltbowled · K Kato-Stafford 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b K Kato-Stafford	0	3	0	0	0.00
Luwsanzundui Erdenebulganlbw · Charlie Hara-Hinze 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Charlie Hara-Hinze	0	6	0	0	0.00
Temuulen Amarmendcaught · S Ravichandran · M Taniyama 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S Ravichandran · b M Taniyama	6	12	1	0	50.00
M Vivekanandanbowled · K Kato-Stafford 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b K Kato-Stafford	25	40	2	0	62.50

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
K Lake0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	7	0	2.33	3
K Kato-Stafford0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	2	3.67	1
R Sakurano-Thomas0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	1	3.67	6
K Kubota0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	1	3.33	1
Charlie Hara-Hinze1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	7	2	2.33	2
Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	0	3.50	1
M Taniyama0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	5	2	1.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	1	3/1
3	6	9/2
4	5	14/2
5	0	14/3
6	6	20/3
7	2	22/4
8	2	24/5
9	2	26/5
10	2	28/5
11	2	30/5
12	1	31/5
13	4	35/5
14	4	39/5
15	1	40/6
16	3	43/8
17	3	46/8
18	3	49/8
19	3	52/8
20	6	58/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.