GloucestershireversusGlamorgan

13 Jul 2025 · T20

Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 40 runs

Gloucestershire20.0 overs175/6 Glamorgan18.1 overs135/10 Sophia Gardens, Cardiff ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 45%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Glamorgan is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Glamorgan: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.4: M de Lange to WT Smale, WT Smale out. Gloucestershire up from 54% to 73%.
2nd inns 10.6: AS Dale to CA Ingram, CA Ingram out. Gloucestershire up from 53% to 77%.
2nd inns 12.3: BG Charlesworth to AM Tribe, AM Tribe out. Gloucestershire up from 65% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire175/6 Glamorgan135/10

Innings 1