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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
5 Jun 2024 · T20
Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photographRecorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 24%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 0% to 25% during the match (Uganda: 75% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Assad Valalbw · AR Ramjani0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b AR Ramjani | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Tony Uracaught · RG Mukasa · Cosmas Kyewuta 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · RG Mukasa · b Cosmas Kyewuta | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Sese Baucaught · RG Mukasa · Juma Miyagi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · RG Mukasa · b Juma Miyagi | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Lega Siakarun out · Simon Ssesazi, Cosmas Kyewuta · Juma Miyagi 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Simon Ssesazi, Cosmas Kyewuta | 12 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 70.59 |
| Hiri Hirilbw · F Nsubuga 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b F Nsubuga | 15 |
| 19 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 78.95 |
| CJA Aminibowled · F Nsubuga 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b F Nsubuga | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 35.71 |
|---|
| Kiplin Dorigalbw · AR Ramjani 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b AR Ramjani | 12 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Chad Soperbowled · Brian Masaba 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brian Masaba | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
|---|
| Norman Vanuacaught · Simon Ssesazi · Cosmas Kyewuta 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Simon Ssesazi · b Cosmas Kyewuta | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Alei Naobowled · Juma Miyagi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Juma Miyagi | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| John Karikonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR Ramjani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Cosmas Kyewuta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 5.37 | 0 | 0 |
| Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 2.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Masaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| F Nsubuga2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Assad Vala, 0.2) · 2-17 (Sese Bau, 2.3) · 3-19 (Tony Ura, 3.3) · 4-36 (Lega Siaka, 6.5) · 5-48 (CJA Amini, 10.2) · 6-51 (Hiri Hiri, 12.1) · 7-65 (Kiplin Doriga, 15.5) · 8-67 (Chad Soper, 16.3) · 9-77 (Alei Nao, 18.4) · 10-77 (Norman Vanua, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 11 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 18/2 |
| 4 | 7 | 25/3 |
| 5 | 3 | 28/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 33/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 36/4 |
| 8 | 4 | 40/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 42/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 48/4 |
| 11 | 0 | 48/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 51/5 |
| 13 | 0 | 51/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 54/6 |
| 15 | 2 | 56/6 |
| 16 | 9 | 65/7 |
| 17 | 4 | 69/8 |
| 18 | 5 | 74/8 |
| 19 | 3 | 77/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 77/10 |
Assad Vala: LondonWriting · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
