South KoreaversusJapan

Japan more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Japan rate stronger than South Korea (1,494 vs 1,310 on our results rating)
• In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Japan won 3 and South Korea won 1
• South Korea are playing at home in South Korea

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Korea started on 23%; South Korea batted first.

South Korea's chances ranged from 0% to 29% during the match (Japan: 71% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 4.3: I Takahashi to BI Dilruksha, BI Dilruksha out. Japan up from 72% to 78%.
2. 4.5: I Takahashi to Kim Daeyeon, Kim Daeyeon out. Japan up from 78% to 83%.
3. 5.1: S Ravichandran to Raja Shoaib, Raja Shoaib out. Japan up from 83% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.