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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B · 2026 · Men
9 Jul 2026 · T20
Denmark more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Denmark started on 78%; Denmark batted first.
Denmark's chances ranged from 78% to 100% during the match (Turkey: 0% to 22%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilyas Ataullahcaught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · Simon Sorensen 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · b Simon Sorensen | 15 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 71.43 |
| Muhammad Fahadcaught · Nicholas Sonne-Rudd · Surya Anand 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicholas Sonne-Rudd · b Surya Anand | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Abdullah Khan Lodhicaught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · Simon Sorensen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · b Simon Sorensen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| I Elecnot out 3 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 50* | 43 | 3 | 3 | 116.28 |
| A Turkmencaught · Sebastian Heath · Nicholas Sonne-Rudd 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sebastian Heath · b Nicholas Sonne-Rudd | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Murat Yilmazcaught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · Saud Munir 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · b Saud Munir | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Furkan Tuskancaught · Simon Sorensen · Abdullah Mahmood 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Simon Sorensen · b Abdullah Mahmood | 21 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 95.45 |
|---|
| M Ozturkcaught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · Abdullah Mahmood 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · b Abdullah Mahmood | 14 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Ibrahim Kursad Dalyancaught · Saud Munir · Lucky Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saud Munir · b Lucky Ali | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Serdar Burak Emircaught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · Simon Sorensen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · b Simon Sorensen | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Mertcan Filiznot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surya Anand0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Simon Sorensen0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 9.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Saud Munir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Sonne-Rudd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Lucky Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Abdullah Mahmood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 8.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-3 (Muhammad Fahad, 1.0) · 2-8 (Abdullah Khan Lodhi, 2.0) · 3-25 (Ilyas Ataullah, 5.1) · 4-33 (A Turkmen, 7.2) · 5-38 (Murat Yilmaz, 8.3) · 6-73 (Furkan Tuskan, 15.3) · 7-91 (M Ozturk, 17.3) · 8-94 (Ibrahim Kursad Dalyan, 18.2) · 9-115 (Serdar Burak Emir, 19.5)
Recorded target: 202 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8/2 |
| 3 | 2 | 10/2 |
| 4 | 12 | 22/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 25/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 31/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 33/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 38/4 |
| 9 | 1 | 39/5 |
| 10 | 4 | 43/5 |
| 11 | 1 | 44/5 |
| 12 | 7 | 51/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 55/5 |
| 14 | 14 | 69/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 72/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 80/6 |
| 17 | 9 | 89/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 93/7 |
| 19 | 9 | 102/8 |
| 20 | 13 | 115/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.