Chennai Super KingsversusRajasthan Royals

30 Mar 2026 · T20

Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 8 wickets

Chennai Super Kings19.4 overs127/10 Rajasthan Royals12.1 overs128/2 Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chennai Super Kings started on 49%; Chennai Super Kings batted first.

Chennai Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Rajasthan Royals is the rest

Chennai Super Kings's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (Rajasthan Royals: 45% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: N Burger to SV Samson, SV Samson out. Rajasthan Royals up from 45% to 58%.
5.3: Sandeep Sharma to MW Short, MW Short out. Rajasthan Royals up from 73% to 85%.
7.2: RA Jadeja to SN Khan, SN Khan out. Rajasthan Royals up from 78% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chennai Super Kings127/10 Rajasthan Royals128/2

Innings 1