IndonesiaversusSouth Korea

Indonesia more likely to win

Why

• In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Indonesia won 6 and South Korea won 1
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Indonesia rate stronger than South Korea (1,342 vs 1,268 on our results rating)
• Indonesia are playing at home in Indonesia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Indonesia started on 73%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia's chances ranged from 18% to 90% during the match (South Korea: 10% to 82%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 10.5: DJ Hawoe to Nishat Sakib, Nishat Sakib out. Indonesia up from 56% to 78%.
2. 2nd inns 17.2: Anjar Tadarus to S Maduranga, six by S Maduranga. South Korea up from 57% to 80%.
3. 2nd inns 18.5: F Banunaek to Bilal Ahmad Mir, four by Bilal Ahmad Mir. South Korea up from 52% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.