IndonesiaversusPhilippines

4 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 3 runs

Indonesia20.0 overs101/8 Philippines20.0 overs98/9 Yeonhui Cricket Ground, Incheon ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Philippines more likely to win

28%Indonesia72%Philippines

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Philippines rate stronger than Indonesia (1,388 vs 1,299 on our results rating)
In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, Philippines won 7 and Indonesia won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 27%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · Philippines is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 8% to 98% during the match (Philippines: 2% to 92%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.5: IKEG Artawan to M Podosky, M Podosky out. Indonesia up from 37% to 73%.
2nd inns 11.1: IK Gamantika to ASF Sirah, ASF Sirah out. Indonesia up from 54% to 86%.
2nd inns 13.6: IK Gamantika to Huzaifa Mohammed, Huzaifa Mohammed out. Indonesia up from 69% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia101/8 Philippines98/9

Innings 2

Philippines

98/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Philippines batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Henry Tylerbowled · Gaurav Tiwari 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Gaurav Tiwari	7	14	1	0	50.00
Daniel Smithbowled · Gaurav Tiwari 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Gaurav Tiwari	15	12	2	0	125.00
AS Samralbw · Gaurav Tiwari 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Gaurav Tiwari	6	7	0	0	85.71
N Tannerbowled · Ketut Artawan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ketut Artawan	3	6	0	0	50.00
Rhys Burinagarun out · Kadek Gamantika, Ketut Artawan · Ketut Artawan 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kadek Gamantika, Ketut Artawan	4	4	0	0	100.00
M Podosky

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
RM Koda0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	0	6.50	2
Gaurav Tiwari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	3	3.25	0
Danilson Hawoe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0
Ketut Artawan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	2
Kadek Gamantika0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	3	3.50	2
F Banunaek0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	0	4.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	3	7/0
3	10	17/0
4	4	21/1
5	9	30/1
6	2	32/3
7	3	35/5
8	4	39/5
9	3	42/6
10	6	48/6
11	9	57/6
12	2	59/7
13	5	64/7
14	4	68/8
15	5	73/8
16	2	75/9
17	7	82/9
18	1	83/9
19	7	90/9
20	8	98/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.