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Photo: Amuzujoe
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Women's African Games · 2023/24 · Women
11 Mar 2024 · T20
Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photographRecorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 41%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Uganda: 0% to 58%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faye Tunnicliffebowled · Concy Aweko 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Concy Aweko | 14 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 127.27 |
| Annerie Dercksencaught · PE Kulume · L Anyait 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · PE Kulume · b L Anyait | 14 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Jenna Evansretired hurt · L Anyait 0 fours · 0 sixes | retired hurt | 14* | 26 | 0 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Nondumiso Shangasecaught · S Walaza · Concy Aweko 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Walaza · b Concy Aweko | 38 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 90.48 |
| Miané Smitcaught and bowled · Janet Mbabazi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Janet Mbabazi | 20 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| not out |
| 14* |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 155.56 |
| Karabo Mesonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Walaza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Concy Aweko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| L Anyait0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Janet Mbabazi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Immaculate Nakisuuyi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Rita Musamali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-27 (Faye Tunnicliffe, 3.5) · 2-29 (Annerie Dercksen, 4.4) · 3-87 (Nondumiso Shangase, 16.1) · 4-117 (Miané Smit, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 29/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 41/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 49/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 52/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 53/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 56/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 62/2 |
| 14 | 11 | 73/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 81/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 87/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 92/3 |
| 18 | 12 | 104/3 |
| 19 | 11 | 115/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 122/4 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.