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Rwanda Women tour of Kenya · 2024 · Women
14 Sept 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Rwanda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Rwanda started on 57%; Rwanda batted first.
Rwanda's chances ranged from 31% to 96% during the match (Kenya: 4% to 69%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queentor Abelcaught · S Niyomuhoza · B Murekatete 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Niyomuhoza · b B Murekatete | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
| KV Mehtacaught · C Uwase · A Ikuzwe 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Uwase · b A Ikuzwe | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 26.67 |
| MI Khagoitsabowled · Henriette Ishimwe 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Henriette Ishimwe | 30 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 125.00 |
| E Wachiracaught · B Murekatete · A Ikuzwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Murekatete · b A Ikuzwe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| V Ookocaught · Gisele Ishimwe · Rosine Irera 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gisele Ishimwe · b Rosine Irera | 18 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 72.00 |
| bowled · b A Ikuzwe |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
| JM Nthenyarun out · M Uwase, Henriette Ishimwe · Henriette Ishimwe 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · M Uwase, Henriette Ishimwe | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| A Wanjirabowled · Henriette Ishimwe 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Henriette Ishimwe | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 118.18 |
|---|
| AW Wambuabowled · Marie Bimenyimana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marie Bimenyimana | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| F Odhiamborun out · Gisele Ishimwe · Marie Bimenyimana 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Gisele Ishimwe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| J Ajiambonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Murekatete0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| I Muhawenimana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.67 | 1 | 0 |
| A Ikuzwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Rosine Irera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Marie Bimenyimana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Henriette Ishimwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-13 (Queentor Abel, 2.4) · 2-20 (KV Mehta, 4.2) · 3-20 (E Wachira, 4.4) · 4-65 (MI Khagoitsa, 12.0) · 5-65 (V Ooko, 12.1) · 6-76 (ZM Hamisi, 14.4) · 7-88 (JM Nthenya, 16.1) · 8-92 (A Wanjira, 17.0) · 9-92 (AW Wambua, 17.1) · 10-92 (F Odhiambo, 17.2)
Recorded target: 111 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 24/3 |
| 6 | 3 | 27/3 |
| 7 | 9 | 36/3 |
| 8 | 10 | 46/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 51/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 58/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 62/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 65/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 71/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 74/5 |
| 15 | 7 | 81/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 87/6 |
| 17 | 5 | 92/8 |
| 18 | 0 | 92/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.