RwandaversusKenya

9 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Kenya won by 2 wickets

Rwanda20.0 overs139/8 Kenya20.0 overs144/8 Gahanga B Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kenya more likely to win

31%Rwanda69%Kenya

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Kenya won 9 and Rwanda won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Rwanda (1,564 vs 1,493 on our results rating)
Rwanda are playing at home in Rwanda

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rwanda started on 30%; Rwanda batted first.

Rwanda’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Rwanda's chances ranged from 2% to 35% during the match (Kenya: 65% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.6: Yves Cyusa to LN Oluoch, LN Oluoch out. Rwanda up from 14% to 29%.
2nd inns 17.6: I Ntirenganya to S Gill, 2 runs to S Gill. Kenya up from 69% to 87%.
2nd inns 19.6: I Ntirenganya to SO Ngoche, six by SO Ngoche. Kenya up from 66% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rwanda139/8 Kenya144/8

Innings 2

Kenya

144/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kenya batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Rushab Patelcaught · Muhammad Nadir · E Rukiriza 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Muhammad Nadir · b E Rukiriza	23	21	1	2	109.52
Dhiren Gondariacaught · M Akayezu · Yves Cyusa 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · M Akayezu · b Yves Cyusa	54	40	5	3	135.00
Rakep Patellbw · Muhammad Nadir 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Muhammad Nadir	14	12	2	0	116.67
Sachin Gillbowled · M Akayezu 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Akayezu	23	20	2	0	115.00
Sukhdeep Singhcaught · M Akayezu · Yves Cyusa0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Z Bimenyimana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	0
I Ntirenganya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	0	10.00	1
E Rukiriza0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	3
M Akayezu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	1	7.00	1
Muhammad Nadir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	0
Yves Cyusa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	4	4.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	9	13/0
3	8	21/0
4	16	37/0
5	10	47/0
6	5	52/0
7	7	59/0
8	8	67/0
9	10	77/1
10	3	80/1
11	11	91/1
12	4	95/2
13	5	100/3
14	6	106/3
15	6	112/4
16	6	118/5
17	2	120/7
18	7	127/7
19	8	135/8
20	9	144/8

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