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Photo: CAPTAIN RAJU
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
New Zealand tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Men
23 Apr 2026 · ODI
Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 28%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saif Hassancaught · Tom Latham · William O’Rourke 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b William O’Rourke | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Tanzid Hasanbowled · William O’Rourke 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b William O’Rourke | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Soumya Sarkarbowled · William O’Rourke3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b William O’Rourke | 18 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 69.23 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantocaught · Nathan Smith · Jayden Lennox9 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Nathan Smith · b Jayden Lennox | 105 | 119 | 9 | 2 | 88.24 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 11% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Jayden Lennox |
| 76 |
| 91 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 83.52 |
 Tawhid Hridoynot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 33* | 29 | 2 | 1 | 113.79 |
|---|
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Will Young · Dean Foxcroft2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Dean Foxcroft | 22 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 122.22 |
|---|
 Shariful Islamcaught · Tom Latham · Benjamin Lister0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Benjamin Lister | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Tanvir Islamcaught · Nick Kelly · Benjamin Lister 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nick Kelly · b Benjamin Lister | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmannot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 William O’Rourke1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 32 | 3 | 4.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 5.56 | 3 | 0 |
| Benjamin Lister0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 2 | 6.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Muhammad Abbas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Clarkson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Jayden Lennox0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Foxcroft0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 5.83 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Saif Hassan, 0.2) · 2-9 (Tanzid Hasan, 2.1) · 3-32 (Soumya Sarkar, 8.3) · 4-192 (Litton Das, 38.1) · 5-221 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 43.0) · 6-256 (Mehedi Hasan, 47.5) · 7-257 (Shariful Islam, 48.1) · 8-257 (Tanvir Islam, 48.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 9/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 13/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 19/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 23/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 28/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 32/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 36/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 38/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 44/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 49/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 57/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 58/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 64/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 68/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 71/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 74/3 |
| 20 | 10 | 84/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 90/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 93/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 97/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 104/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 107/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 113/3 |
| 28 | 9 | 122/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 129/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 135/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 139/3 |
| 32 | 13 | 152/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 157/3 |
| 34 | 9 | 166/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 169/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 172/3 |
| 37 | 7 | 179/3 |
| 38 | 13 | 192/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 198/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 204/4 |
| 41 | 4 | 208/4 |
| 42 | 8 | 216/4 |
| 43 | 5 | 221/5 |
| 44 | 4 | 225/5 |
| 45 | 6 | 231/5 |
| 46 | 6 | 237/5 |
| 47 | 7 | 244/5 |
| 48 | 13 | 257/6 |
| 49 | 3 | 260/8 |
| 50 | 5 | 265/8 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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