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Photo: CAPTAIN RAJU
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
New Zealand tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Men
23 Apr 2026 · ODI
Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 28%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Nichollscaught · Litton Das · Mustafizur Rahman 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Mustafizur Rahman | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Nick Kellycaught · Tanzid Hasan · Mustafizur Rahman 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tanzid Hasan · b Mustafizur Rahman | 59 | 80 | 6 | 1 | 73.75 |
 Will Youngcaught · Litton Das · Nahid Rana2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Nahid Rana | 19 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 76.00 |
 Tom Lathamcaught · Shariful Islam · Mehedi Hasan0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shariful Islam · b Mehedi Hasan | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 11% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Shariful Islam |
| 25 |
| 36 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 69.44 |
| Dean Foxcroftcaught · Saif Hassan · Mehedi Hasan 0 fours · 7 sixes | caught · Saif Hassan · b Mehedi Hasan | 75 | 72 | 0 | 7 | 104.17 |
|---|
| Josh Clarksonbowled · Nahid Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nahid Rana | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught · Mehedi Hasan · Mustafizur Rahman 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Mustafizur Rahman | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jayden Lennoxcaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Mustafizur Rahman 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Mustafizur Rahman | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkebowled · Mustafizur Rahman0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mustafizur Rahman | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Benjamin Listernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shariful Islam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 2.71 | 1 | 0 |
 Mustafizur Rahman2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 43 | 5 | 4.78 | 1 | 0 |
 Nahid Rana1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 3.70 | 3 | 0 |
| Tanvir Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 4.08 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Henry Nicholls, 3.2) · 2-54 (Will Young, 13.3) · 3-61 (Tom Latham, 16.5) · 4-108 (Nick Kelly, 25.2) · 5-124 (Muhammad Abbas, 29.5) · 6-137 (Josh Clarkson, 33.0) · 7-150 (Nathan Smith, 35.5) · 8-154 (Jayden Lennox, 37.3) · 9-160 (William O’Rourke, 39.4) · 10-210 (Dean Foxcroft, 44.5)
Recorded target: 266 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 20/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 24/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 28/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 33/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 38/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 46/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 52/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 57/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 58/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 59/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 61/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 68/3 |
| 19 | 1 | 69/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 76/3 |
| 21 | 9 | 85/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 89/3 |
| 23 | 9 | 98/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 103/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 108/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 109/4 |
| 27 | 7 | 116/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 118/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 123/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 124/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 128/5 |
| 32 | 4 | 132/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 137/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 140/6 |
| 35 | 2 | 142/6 |
| 36 | 8 | 150/7 |
| 37 | 4 | 154/7 |
| 38 | 0 | 154/8 |
| 39 | 5 | 159/8 |
| 40 | 1 | 160/9 |
| 41 | 9 | 169/9 |
| 42 | 3 | 172/9 |
| 43 | 17 | 189/9 |
| 44 | 13 | 202/9 |
| 45 | 8 | 210/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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