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Pakistan Women tour of England · 2024 · Women
23 May 2024 · ODI
The County Ground, Derby · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 90%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Beaumontlbw · Umm-e-Hani5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Umm-e-Hani | 33 | 40 | 5 | 0 | 82.50 |
| Maia Bouchierlbw · Nashra Sandhu 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nashra Sandhu | 17 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 70.83 |
 Heather Knightcaught · Najiha Alvi · Aliya Riaz2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Najiha Alvi · b Aliya Riaz | 29 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 59.18 |
 Nat Sciver-Bruntcaught · Najiha Alvi · Aliya Riaz4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Najiha Alvi · b Aliya Riaz | 31 | 34 | 4 | 0 |
England's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 27%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 91.18 |
 Alice Capseycaught and bowled · Nashra Sandhu3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nashra Sandhu | 44 | 65 | 3 | 0 | 67.69 |
|---|
 Amy Jonescaught · Ayesha Zafar · Nida Dar3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ayesha Zafar · b Nida Dar | 37 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 97.37 |
|---|
 Charlie Deanbowled · Nida Dar2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nida Dar | 20 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 95.24 |
|---|
 Sophie Ecclestonecaught · Sadaf Shamas · Nida Dar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sadaf Shamas · b Nida Dar | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Sarah Glennnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 123.08 |
|---|
 Kate Crosscaught · Nashra Sandhu · Umm-e-Hani1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nashra Sandhu · b Umm-e-Hani | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Lauren Bellnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatima Sana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 6.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Diana Baig0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Umm-e-Hani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 4.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Nida Dar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 3 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Aliya Riaz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Ayesha Zafar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 3 | 0 |
1-45 (Maia Bouchier, 8.3) · 2-61 (Tammy Beaumont, 13.1) · 3-107 (Heather Knight, 23.2) · 4-118 (Nat Sciver-Brunt, 25.5) · 5-185 (Amy Jones, 38.2) · 6-216 (Alice Capsey, 44.0) · 7-218 (Sophie Ecclestone, 45.1) · 8-227 (Charlie Dean, 47.1) · 9-236 (Kate Cross, 48.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 21/0 |
| 7 | 13 | 34/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 44/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 47/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 56/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 59/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 61/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 66/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 76/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 83/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 86/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 92/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 97/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 101/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 107/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 108/3 |
| 25 | 9 | 117/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 118/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 121/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 123/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 127/4 |
| 30 | 10 | 137/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 140/4 |
| 32 | 8 | 148/4 |
| 33 | 7 | 155/4 |
| 34 | 6 | 161/4 |
| 35 | 10 | 171/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 174/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 181/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 185/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 188/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 193/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 196/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 197/5 |
| 43 | 12 | 209/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 216/6 |
| 45 | 2 | 218/6 |
| 46 | 6 | 224/7 |
| 47 | 3 | 227/7 |
| 48 | 6 | 233/8 |
| 49 | 3 | 236/9 |
| 50 | 7 | 243/9 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sarah Glenn: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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