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Pakistan Women tour of England · 2024 · Women
23 May 2024 · ODI
The County Ground, Derby · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 90%; England batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadaf Shamasbowled · Sophie Ecclestone 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone | 28 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 58.33 |
| Sidra Ameencaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Bell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Bell | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
| Muneeba Alicaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Bell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Bell | 34 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 56.67 |
| Ayesha Zafarbowled · Sophie Ecclestone 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone | 8 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 47.06 |
| Nida Darcaught · Tammy Beaumont · Charlie Dean 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tammy Beaumont · b Charlie Dean | 26 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 68.42 |
England's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 27%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Charlie Dean |
| 21 |
| 32 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 65.63 |
| Fatima Sanalbw · Sophie Ecclestone 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sophie Ecclestone | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Najiha Alvinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 26* | 57 | 1 | 0 | 45.61 |
|---|
| Umm-e-Hanibowled · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kate Cross | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Diana Baigcaught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · Kate Cross 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · b Kate Cross | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhunot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 15 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 31 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kate Cross0 maidens · 6 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 4.60 | 6 | 2 |
 Lauren Bell0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 7 | 0 |
 Sophie Ecclestone1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 2.60 | 2 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean1 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 3.90 | 8 | 0 |
 Sarah Glenn0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 4.60 | 8 | 0 |
1-37 (Sidra Ameen, 7.3) · 2-67 (Sadaf Shamas, 15.4) · 3-79 (Ayesha Zafar, 19.4) · 4-117 (Muneeba Ali, 27.4) · 5-149 (Nida Dar, 34.3) · 6-154 (Fatima Sana, 35.2) · 7-156 (Aliya Riaz, 36.5) · 8-163 (Umm-e-Hani, 39.1) · 9-178 (Diana Baig, 41.4)
Recorded target: 244 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 27/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 40/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 45/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 47/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 51/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 62/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 63/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 66/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 68/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 71/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 78/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 81/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 87/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 92/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 95/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 100/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 106/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 111/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 115/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 118/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 125/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 129/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 133/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 138/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 144/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 149/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 154/5 |
| 36 | 0 | 154/6 |
| 37 | 2 | 156/7 |
| 38 | 2 | 158/7 |
| 39 | 5 | 163/7 |
| 40 | 2 | 165/8 |
| 41 | 4 | 169/8 |
| 42 | 9 | 178/9 |
| 43 | 1 | 179/9 |
| 44 | 6 | 185/9 |
| 45 | 1 | 186/9 |
| 46 | 3 | 189/9 |
| 47 | 6 | 195/9 |
| 48 | 3 | 198/9 |
| 49 | 3 | 201/9 |
| 50 | 5 | 206/9 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sarah Glenn: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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