BhutanversusMaldives

13 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Maldives won by 9 wickets

Bhutan20.0 overs115/6 Maldives14.3 overs119/1 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bhutan more likely to win

59%Bhutan41%Maldives

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bhutan rate stronger than Maldives (1,323 vs 1,263 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 57%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Maldives is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (Maldives: 40% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Ibrahim Hassan to JN Dorji, JN Dorji out. Maldives up from 43% to 52%.
2.5: Ibrahim Hassan to Tenjin Rabgey, Tenjin Rabgey out. Maldives up from 47% to 57%.
5.2: Nazwan Ismail to T Jamtsho, T Jamtsho out. Maldives up from 42% to 52%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan115/6 Maldives119/1

Innings 2

Maldives

119/114.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Maldives batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Azyan Farhathnot out 4 fours · 0 sixes	not out	39*	43	4	0	90.70
Umar Adamcaught · T Wangchuk · Sonam Yeshey 1 fours · 3 sixes	caught · T Wangchuk · b Sonam Yeshey	33	18	1	3	183.33
KTK Rodrigonot out 5 fours · 1 sixes	not out	37*	26	5	1	142.31
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowling
Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
T Wangchuk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	0	5.67	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	8	10/0
3	9	19/0
4	6	25/0
5	8	33/0
6	23	56/0
7	4	60/1
8	11	71/1
9	4	75/1
10	8	83/1
11	3	86/1
12	5	91/1
13	9	100/1
14	7	107/1
15	12	119/1

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