San Francisco UnicornsversusTexas Super Kings

4 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

San Francisco Unicorns won by 1 runs

San Francisco Unicorns20.0 overs148/6 Texas Super Kings20.0 overs147/7 Central Broward Regional Park Stadium Turf Ground, Lauderhill ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

San Francisco Unicorns started on 51%; San Francisco Unicorns batted first.

San Francisco Unicorns’s chance of winning (%) · Texas Super Kings is the rest

San Francisco Unicorns's chances ranged from 13% to 79% during the match (Texas Super Kings: 21% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.5: R Shepherd to Shubham Ranjane, Shubham Ranjane out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 35% to 60%.
2nd inns 19.5: XC Bartlett to Mohammad Mohsin, four by Mohammad Mohsin. Texas Super Kings up from 27% to 56%.
2nd inns 19.6: XC Bartlett to Mohammad Mohsin, CP Savage out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 44% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.