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Pakistan tour of England · 2026 · Men
27 Aug 2026 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettcaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Khurram Shehzad0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Khurram Shehzad | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Emilio Gaylbw · Mohammad Abbas 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mohammad Abbas | 31 | 74 | 6 | 0 | 41.89 |
| Jordan Coxlbw · Khurram Shehzad 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Khurram Shehzad | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 122.22 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Mohammad Ali3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mohammad Ali | 24 |
| 37 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 64.86 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Mohammad Abbas5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Mohammad Abbas | 34 | 56 | 5 | 0 | 60.71 |
|---|
 Daniel Lawrencebowled · Mohammad Abbas7 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Abbas | 54 | 70 | 7 | 2 | 77.14 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Shan Masood · Mohammad Abbas1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shan Masood · b Mohammad Abbas | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53.85 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonlbw · Mohammad Ali 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mohammad Ali | 7 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Ollie Robinsoncaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Mohammad Abbas1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Mohammad Abbas | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
 Jofra Archernot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguerun out · Mohammad Babar Azam · Mohammad Ali 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mohammad Babar Azam | 12 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 5 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammad Abbas3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.0 | 3 | 57 | 5 | 2.59 | 0 | 0 |
| Khurram Shehzad3 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 14.0 | 3 | 56 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Mohammad Ali1 maidens · 5 wides · 3 no-balls | 16.2 | 1 | 70 | 2 | 4.29 | 5 | 3 |
| Ali Usman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Ben Duckett, 1.3) · 2-13 (Jordan Cox, 3.1) · 3-60 (Joe Root, 16.3) · 4-83 (Emilio Gay, 23.4) · 5-128 (Harry Brook, 35.5) · 6-149 (Jamie Smith, 40.0) · 7-162 (Gus Atkinson, 45.0) · 8-186 (Daniel Lawrence, 49.2) · 9-187 (Ollie Robinson, 51.1) · 10-208 (Josh Tongue, 54.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 16/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 18/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 18/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 23/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 29/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 30/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 34/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 39/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 47/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 51/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 53/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 60/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 60/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 64/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 68/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 71/3 |
| 21 | 9 | 80/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 81/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 83/3 |
| 24 | 0 | 83/4 |
| 25 | 0 | 83/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 87/4 |
| 27 | 10 | 97/4 |
| 28 | 0 | 97/4 |
| 29 | 0 | 97/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 99/4 |
| 31 | 7 | 106/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 107/4 |
| 33 | 11 | 118/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 119/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 124/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 128/5 |
| 37 | 10 | 138/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 139/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 142/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 149/6 |
| 41 | 1 | 150/6 |
| 42 | 1 | 151/6 |
| 43 | 2 | 153/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 158/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 162/7 |
| 46 | 12 | 174/7 |
| 47 | 3 | 177/7 |
| 48 | 5 | 182/7 |
| 49 | 4 | 186/7 |
| 50 | 0 | 186/8 |
| 51 | 1 | 187/8 |
| 52 | 1 | 188/9 |
| 53 | 11 | 199/9 |
| 54 | 7 | 206/9 |
| 55 | 2 | 208/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Imam-ul-Haq: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Abbas: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shan Masood: Balochistan Social News · CC BY 3.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Robinson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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