RomaniaversusBulgaria

Romania more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Romania rate stronger than Bulgaria (1,302 vs 1,102 on our results rating)
• Romania are playing at home in Romania

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Romania started on 80%; Romania batted first.

Romania's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (Bulgaria: 0% to 21%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.4: K Srandeva to RL Blake, four by RL Blake. Romania up from 80% to 86%.
2. 1.1: T Dissanayake to RL Blake, four by RL Blake. Romania up from 86% to 88%.
3. 3.5: T Dissanayake to M Kearvell, 0 runs to M Kearvell. Romania up from 89% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.