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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
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Bangladesh tour of Sri Lanka · 2025 · Men
16 Jul 2025 · T20
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 55%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 67% during the match (Bangladesh: 33% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parvez Hossain Emonlbw · Nuwan Thushara 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nuwan Thushara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Tanzid Hasannot out 1 fours · 6 sixes | not out | 73* | 47 | 1 | 6 | 155.32 |
 Litton Dascaught · Kushal Janith Perera · Kamindu Mendis2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kushal Janith Perera · b Kamindu Mendis | 32 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 123.08 |
 Tawhid Hridoynot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 27* | 25 | 1 | 1 | 108.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Binura Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 8.57 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Vandersay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Parvez Hossain Emon, 0.1) · 2-74 (Litton Das, 8.3)
Recorded target: 133 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 30/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 40/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 47/1 |
| 7 | 16 | 63/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 71/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 76/2 |
| 10 | 13 | 89/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 93/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 99/2 |
| 13 | 12 | 111/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 116/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 123/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 126/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 133/2 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamim Hossain: DelwarHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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