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Pakistan tour of Zimbabwe · 2024/25 · Men
1 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Zimbabwe more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 40%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettbowled · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abrar Ahmed | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Tadiwanashe Marumanirun out · Usman Khan, Tayyab Tahir · Abbas Afridi 4 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Usman Khan, Tayyab Tahir | 33 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 165.00 |
| Dion Myersbowled · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Abrar Ahmed | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 150.00 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Saim Ayub · Jahandad Khan4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Jahandad Khan | 39 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 139.29 |
| Ryan Burlcaught · Salman Ali Agha · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
 Clive Madandestumped · Usman Khan · Sufyan Moqeem0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Usman Khan · b Sufyan Moqeem | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Tashinga Musekiwanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
| Wellington Masakadzabowled · Sufyan Moqeem 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sufyan Moqeem | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravacaught · Omair Yousuf · Sufyan Moqeem 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Omair Yousuf · b Sufyan Moqeem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabanibowled · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Haris Rauf | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Trevor Gwandustumped · Usman Khan · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Usman Khan · b Abrar Ahmed | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahandad Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 10.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sufyan Moqeem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-12 (Brian Bennett, 2.1) · 2-18 (Dion Myers, 2.5) · 3-77 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 8.2) · 4-87 (Ryan Burl, 10.3) · 5-92 (Clive Madande, 11.2) · 6-95 (Sikandar Raza, 12.3) · 7-102 (Wellington Masakadza, 13.5) · 8-102 (Richard Ngarava, 14.0) · 9-107 (Blessing Muzarabani, 14.3) · 10-108 (Trevor Gwandu, 15.3)
Recorded target: 166 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 19/2 |
| 4 | 21 | 40/2 |
| 5 | 13 | 53/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 60/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 70/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 85/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 90/4 |
| 12 | 2 | 92/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 97/6 |
| 14 | 5 | 102/8 |
| 15 | 5 | 107/9 |
| 16 | 1 | 108/10 |
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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