NamibiaversusSouth Africa

28 Aug 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Namibia won by 18 runs

Namibia20.0 overs163/9 South Africa20.0 overs145/9 Namibia Cricket Ground, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Namibia47%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Namibia (1,652 vs 1,598 on our results rating)
Namibia are playing at home in Namibia
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 1 and South Africa won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 49%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 53%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.3: JT Brassell to J Hermann, J Hermann out. Namibia up from 48% to 61%.
2nd inns 3.3: R Trumpelmann to LG Pretorius, LG Pretorius out. Namibia up from 61% to 74%.
2nd inns 11.2: R Trumpelmann to RA Herman, RA Herman out. Namibia up from 63% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia163/9 South Africa145/9

Innings 2

South Africa

145/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
LG Pretoriuscaught · A Busing-Volschenk · Ruben Trumpelmann 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Busing-Volschenk · b Ruben Trumpelmann	9	9	0	0	100.00
Jordan Hermanncaught · Ruben Trumpelmann · Jack Brassell 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ruben Trumpelmann · b Jack Brassell	7	9	0	0	77.78
Dewald Breviscaught · Jack Brassell · Ruben Trumpelmann 4 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Jack Brassell · b Ruben Trumpelmann	75	50	4	5	150.00
Tony de Zorzibowled · M Heingo 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Heingo	9	13	1	0	69.23
Rubin Hermannbowled · Ruben Trumpelmann 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ruben Trumpelmann	12	9	2	0	133.33

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	1	3.50	0
Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	3	6.00	0
Jack Brassell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	2
JJ Smit0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	3	7.75	0
M Heingo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0
Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	8	13/0
3	3	16/1
4	8	24/2
5	6	30/2
6	4	34/2
7	5	39/3
8	7	46/3
9	3	49/3
10	18	67/3
11	10	77/3
12	4	81/4
13	5	86/4
14	5	91/5
15	15	106/5
16	10	116/5
17	13	129/5
18	4	133/6
19	3	136/7
20	9	145/9

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